ampli/py/pymodels.py

from argparse import ArgumentParser, FileType
import numpy as np
import pandas as p
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
import datetime as dt
import pickle

epoch = dt.datetime(2017, 1, 1)


def thirtyoffset(date, epoch=epoch):
    """Get the offset from the epoch, in multiples of 30 minutes,
    for a particular date/time
    """
    return (date - epoch).total_seconds() / (60 * 30)


def harmonic(length, period, start=0, harmonics=1, prefix=""):
    x = np.arange(length) + start
    y = np.ndarray((harmonics * 2, length), dtype=np.float64)
    ns = []
    nc = []
    for i in range(harmonics):
        ysi = np.sin(x/period * 2 * np.pi * (i + 1))
        yci = np.cos(x/period * 2 * np.pi * (i + 1))
        y[i] = ysi
        ns.append("{}sin{}".format(prefix, i + 1))
        y[i + harmonics] = yci
        nc.append("{}cos{}".format(prefix, i + 1))
    y = p.DataFrame.from_records(y.transpose(), columns=ns + nc)
    return y


def fitWeather(weather, harmonics):
    """Fit a weather model with a specified number of harmonics
    in order to detrend Returns models for minimum and maximum
    rolling temperature, along with a summary dataframe
    """
    # Make sure weather dataset is complete
    wantedtimes = p.date_range(weather.temp_timestamp.min(),
                               weather.temp_timestamp.max(), freq="30 min")
    wantedtimes = p.Series(wantedtimes.round(freq="30 min"))
    wanteddf = p.DataFrame(index=wantedtimes)
    weather = wanteddf.join(weather.set_index(['temp_timestamp']),
                            how='left').drop('temp_date', axis=1)
    weather.index.name = "read_time"
    weather = weather.fillna(method='ffill', axis=0)

    # Add rolling columns
    weather['min_rolling'] = weather['tmin_c'].rolling("1D").min()
    weather['max_rolling'] = weather['tmax_c'].rolling("1D").max()

    # Calculate harmonics
    wharmstart = thirtyoffset(weather.index.min())
    wharm = harmonic(weather.shape[0], period=365.25 * 48, start=wharmstart,
                     harmonics=harmonics)

    # Weather harmonic column names in format for model
    weatherharms = " + ".join(wharm.columns.tolist())

    # Set up dataframe for modeling
    wharm.index = weather.index
    wharm['min_rolling'] = weather['min_rolling']
    wharm['max_rolling'] = weather['max_rolling']

    # Fitting models
    minmodel = smf.ols("min_rolling ~ " + weatherharms, data=wharm).fit()
    maxmodel = smf.ols("max_rolling ~ " + weatherharms, data=wharm).fit()

    # Residuals and fitted values
    sumdf = p.DataFrame(data={
        "max_rolling": wharm["max_rolling"],
        "max_resid":   maxmodel.resid,
        "max_fitted":  maxmodel.fittedvalues,
        "min_rolling": wharm["min_rolling"],
        "min_resid":   minmodel.resid,
        "min_fitted":  minmodel.fittedvalues
    })

    return minmodel, maxmodel, sumdf


def predweather(model, datestart, dateend, harmonics=2):
    """Predict weather values from a weather model and date range
    Note: it's the residuals (true value - prediction) that go
    into the demand model
    """
    drange = p.date_range(datestart, dateend, freq="30min")
    pharm = harmonic(len(drange),
                     period=365.25 * 48,
                     start=thirtyoffset(drange.min()),
                     harmonics=harmonics)
    pharm.index = drange
    return model.predict(pharm)


def fitdemand(df, wmodsum, harmonics=[2, 3, 3]):
    harmstart = thirtyoffset(df.index.min())
    clusters = df.cluster.unique()
    clusters.sort()
    utv = df.index.unique()
    harmlen = len(utv)

    yharm = harmonic(harmlen, period=365.25 * 48, start=harmstart,
                     harmonics=harmonics[0], prefix="y")
    yharm.index = utv

    wharm = harmonic(harmlen, period=7 * 48, start=harmstart,
                     harmonics=harmonics[1], prefix="w")
    wharm.index = utv

    dharm = harmonic(harmlen, period=48, start=harmstart,
                     harmonics=harmonics[2], prefix="d")
    dharm.index = utv

    y_params = " + ".join(yharm.columns.tolist())
    w_params = " + ".join(wharm.columns.tolist())
    d_params = " + ".join(dharm.columns.tolist())

    hcomb = p.concat([yharm, wharm, dharm], axis=1)

    modellist = {}

    modelstring = f"""kwh_tot_mean ~ {y_params} + {w_params} + {d_params}
                   + ({y_params}):({d_params})
                   + ({w_params}):({d_params})
                   + max_resid + max_resid:({y_params})
                   + max_resid:({w_params}) + max_resid:({d_params})
                   + min_resid + min_resid:({y_params})
                   + min_resid:({w_params}) + min_resid:({d_params})
                   """.replace("\n", "").replace("  ", "")

    for c in clusters:
        dfc = df[df['cluster'] == c].join(hcomb,
                                          how='left').join(wmodsum,
                                                           how='left')
        # print(dfc)
        cmod = smf.ols(modelstring, data=dfc).fit()
        modellist[c] = cmod

    return modellist


def main():
    parser = ArgumentParser(description='Harmonic models of all '
                            'clusters in specified pickle')
    parser.add_argument("-i", "--input",  dest="input",
                        help="input aggregated ICP pickle path",
                        metavar="PATH", required=True,
                        type=FileType('rb'))
    parser.add_argument("-w", "--weather",  dest="weather",
                        help="input weather pickle path",
                        metavar="PATH", required=True,
                        type=FileType('rb'))
    parser.add_argument("-m", "--model-file", dest="model_file",
                        help="filename for model to store",
                        required=True,
                        type=FileType('wb'))
    parser.add_argument("--weather-harmonics", dest="weather_harmonics",
                        help="number of harmonics for weather; default: 2",
                        type=int, default=2, metavar="NUM")
    parser.add_argument("--icp-harmonics", dest="icp_harmonics", nargs=3,
                        help="harmonics for icp fitting, default 2 3 3",
                        default=[2, 3, 3], type=int,
                        metavar="NUM")
    args = parser.parse_args()

    wdat = p.read_pickle(args.weather).drop(['record_no', 'station'], axis=1)

    icpdat = p.read_pickle(args.input).set_index('read_time')

    minm, maxm, sumdf = fitWeather(wdat, args.weather_harmonics)

    clusters = icpdat.cluster.unique()
    clusters.sort()

    mods = {
        "icp": fitdemand(icpdat, sumdf, args.icp_harmonics),
        "min_temp": minm,
        "max_temp": maxm,
        "clusters": clusters,
        "weather_harmonics": args.weather_harmonics,
        "icp_harmonics": args.icp_harmonics
    }

    pickle.dump(mods, args.model_file)

    args.input.close()
    args.weather.close()
    args.model_file.close()


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()