ampli/R/clusterviz.R

library(reticulate)
library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
library(TSA)
library(forecast)
theme_set(theme_bw())
use_virtualenv("../venv/")

p <- import("pandas")
sns <- import("seaborn")
cbp <- as.character(p$Series(sns$color_palette("colorblind", as.integer(9))$as_hex()))
aggdf <- p$read_pickle("../data/9-clusters.agg.pkl")
aggdf <- as.data.frame(aggdf)
aggdf$cluster <- factor(aggdf$cluster)
str(aggdf)
clusters = levels(aggdf$cluster)

ggplot(aggdf, aes(y = kwh_tot_mean, x = cluster)) + geom_boxplot()

facall <- ggplot(aggdf, aes(x = read_time, y = kwh_tot_mean, color = cluster, fill = cluster)) + 
    geom_line(size = 1.5) + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = kwh_tot_CI_low, ymax = kwh_tot_CI_high), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
    labs(title = "Cluster behaviour over full year, 2017", x = "Date", y = "kwh") +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) +
    scale_fill_manual(values = cbp) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") +
    scale_x_datetime(date_breaks = "1 month", date_labels = "%-d %B")

allcon <- facall + facet_grid(cluster ~ .)
allfre <- facall + facet_grid(cluster ~ ., scales = "free")

midjan <- filter(aggdf, read_time >= as.POSIXct("2017-01-15", tz = "UTC"), read_time <= as.POSIXct("2017-01-22", tz = "UTC"))

facjan <- ggplot(midjan, aes(x = read_time, y = kwh_tot_mean, color = cluster, fill = cluster)) + 
    geom_line(size = 1.5) + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = kwh_tot_CI_low, ymax = kwh_tot_CI_high), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
    labs(title = "Cluster behaviour over third week of January", x = "Date", y = "kwh") +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) +
    scale_fill_manual(values = cbp) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") +
    scale_x_datetime(date_breaks = "1 day", date_labels = "%a, %-d %B %Y")

jancon <- facjan + facet_grid(cluster ~ .)
janfre <- facjan + facet_grid(cluster ~ ., scales = "free")


midap <- filter(aggdf, read_time >= as.POSIXct("2017-04-16", tz = "UTC"), read_time <= as.POSIXct("2017-04-23", tz = "UTC"))

facap <- ggplot(midap, aes(x = read_time, y = kwh_tot_mean, color = cluster, fill = cluster)) + 
    geom_line(size = 1.5) + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = kwh_tot_CI_low, ymax = kwh_tot_CI_high), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
    labs(title = "Cluster behaviour over third week of April 2017", x = "Date", y = "kwh") +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) +
    scale_fill_manual(values = cbp) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") +
    scale_x_datetime(date_breaks = "1 day", date_labels = "%a, %-d %B %Y")

apcon <- facap + facet_grid(cluster ~ .)
apfre <- facap + facet_grid(cluster ~ ., scales = "free")


midjul <- filter(aggdf, read_time >= as.POSIXct("2017-07-16", tz = "UTC"), read_time <= as.POSIXct("2017-07-23", tz = "UTC"))

facjul <- ggplot(midjul, aes(x = read_time, y = kwh_tot_mean, color = cluster, fill = cluster)) + 
    geom_line(size = 1.5) + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = kwh_tot_CI_low, ymax = kwh_tot_CI_high), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
    labs(title = "Cluster behaviour over third week of July 2017", x = "Date", y = "kwh") +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) +
    scale_fill_manual(values = cbp) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") +
    scale_x_datetime(date_breaks = "1 day", date_labels = "%a, %-d %B %Y")

julcon <- facjul + facet_grid(cluster ~ .)
julfre <- facjul + facet_grid(cluster ~ ., scales = "free")


midoct <- filter(aggdf, read_time >= as.POSIXct("2017-10-15", tz = "UTC"), read_time <= as.POSIXct("2017-10-22", tz = "UTC"))

facoct <- ggplot(midoct, aes(x = read_time, y = kwh_tot_mean, color = cluster, fill = cluster)) + 
    geom_line(size = 1.5) + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = kwh_tot_CI_low, ymax = kwh_tot_CI_high), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
    labs(title = "Cluster behaviour over third week of October 2017", x = "Date", y = "kwh") +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) +
    scale_fill_manual(values = cbp) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") +
    scale_x_datetime(date_breaks = "1 day", date_labels = "%a, %-d %B %Y")

octcon <- facoct + facet_grid(cluster ~ .)
octfre <- facoct + facet_grid(cluster ~ ., scales = "free")

ggsave("all-9-fix.png", allcon, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("all-9-fre.png", allfre, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("jan-9-fix.png", jancon, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("jan-9-fre.png", janfre, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("apr-9-fix.png",  apcon, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("apr-9-fre.png",  apfre, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("jul-9-fix.png", julcon, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("jul-9-fre.png", julfre, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("oct-9-fix.png", octcon, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("oct-9-fre.png", octfre, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")


# ----


cacf <- list()
perd <- list()

for (c in clusters) {
    cagg <- filter(aggdf, cluster == c)
    cacf[[c]] <- acf(cagg$kwh_tot_mean, lag.max = 48*365, plot = FALSE)$acf
    per <- periodogram(cagg$kwh_tot_mean, plot = FALSE)
    perd[[c]] <- data.frame(freq = per$freq, spec = per$spec) %>% mutate(cluster = c, period = (1/freq)) 
    #%>% arrange(desc(spec)) %>% head(5)
}

acfm <- sapply(cacf, as.numeric) %>% as.data.frame() %>% mutate(hour = ((1:length(`1`)) - 1)/2) %>% 
    gather(key = "cluster", value = "acorr", clusters) %>% mutate(day = hour / 24, week = hour / (24 * 7))


fcorr <- ggplot(acfm, aes(x = week, y = acorr, color = cluster)) + geom_line(size = 1.5) +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) + facet_grid(cluster ~ .) + coord_cartesian(expand = FALSE) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") + labs(title = "Autocorrelation plot (full year)", 
                                           y = "Autocorrelation", x = "lag (weeks)")

wcorr <- ggplot(acfm, aes(x = day, y = acorr, color = cluster)) + geom_line(size = 1.5) +
    scale_color_manual(values = cbp) + facet_grid(cluster ~ .) +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = unique(floor(acfm$day / 7)) * 7) +
    theme(legend.position = "none") + coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 15), expand = FALSE) +
    labs(title = "Autocorrelation plot (two weeks)", y = "Autocorrelation", x = "lag (days)")

ggsave("full-autocorr.png", fcorr, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")
ggsave("week-autocorr.png", wcorr, path = "../img/", dpi = "retina", width = 40, height = 25, units = "cm")

perd <- bind_rows(perd)

ggplot(perd, aes(x = freq, y = spec)) + 
    geom_line() + facet_grid(cluster ~ ., scales = "free") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1 / (c(48, 48*7, 48*7*4, 48*365)))

c1ts <- filter(aggdf, cluster == "1")$kwh_tot_mean
cts <- ts(c1ts, frequency = 48, start = c(1, 1))
# carima <- auto.arima(cts, trace = TRUE)
# plot(forecast(carima, h = 480))
ctsnp <- msts(c1ts, c(48, 48*7))
ctbats <- tbats(ctsnp)
plot(forecast(ctbats, h = 48 * 7 * 4))

c9ts <- filter(aggdf, cluster == "9")$kwh_tot_mean
ctsnp <- msts(c9ts, c(48, 48*7))
ctbats <- tbats(ctsnp)
plot(forecast(ctbats, h = 48 * 7 * 4))